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Prediction for CME (2023-11-16T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-11-16T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/27722/-1
CME Note: CME visible in the NW of SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. Source is seen as dimming centered around N15W15 starting around 2023-11-16T00:34Z in SDO AIA 193. This eruption is also seen in STEREO A EUVI 195 imagery near disk center. Overlaps in the field of view of the coronagraphs with CME: 2023-11-16T04:24Z, which is believed to have originated on the back side. Arrival signature: Characterized by a jump in B_total from around 5.6 nT to a peak of 14.55 nT, with Bz remaining largely neutral with a short southward spike to -5 nT. An increase in density and small spike in temperature and solar wind speed to about 340 km/s are also observed. A separate enhancement in the magnetic field components, possibly associated with the same CME event, is observed leading up to this event seen best from 2023-11-20T05:00Z onward with a gradual increase in B_total up to around 12 nT. Around 2023-11-20T09:12Z, Bt swiftly drops down to around 5-6 nT prior to this arrival.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T09:49Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-11-20T10:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 50.0%
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 16:09
Radial velocity (km/s): 283
Longitude (deg): 29
Latitude (deg): 9
Half-angular width (deg): 45

Notes: I considered two CMEs as front side which may not be the consensus. In SDO304 i see two locations for emission 16/02-04UT, so I thought two overlapping CMEs both front side. Here is the other faster CME which may be now be considered far side:
T2023-11-16 08:06
lat -4
lon 27
cone 23
Vel 551.

The slower CME is expected to arrive 20-Nov 10UT. If the faster CME is frontside it is expected 19-Nov 13UT. But perhaps I am incorrect in my analysis.

Lead Time: 81.98 hour(s)
Difference: -0.18 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-11-16T23:50Z

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